Current and future retail demand and supply on the basis of gross leasing area. Retail mall categories along with their annual rental rates have also been presented in the report. In addition, current and future supply gap along with upcoming retail projects have also been showcased in the report. This report will help industry consultants, real estate and construction companies, potential entrants and other stakeholders to align their market centric strategies according to the ongoing and expected trends in the future.
Evolution of the retail sector has transformed the Kingdom’s landscape from small unorganized retail outlets and line shops to the development of large scale shopping malls with international brands, entertainment zones and world class hypermarkets. The primary reason for this trend is because retailers have realized the higher footfall from regional and super regional malls as a result of integrated spaces and shift in consumer shopping experience towards leisure and entertainment.
Retail Demand and Supply
The total retail supply in Riyadh inclined from ~ million square meters during 2012 to ~ million square meters of gross leasing area during 2016, registering a CAGR of ~% during the same period. Conversely, total occupied retail space inclined to ~ million square meters of gross leasing area during 2016 from approximately ~ million square meters during 2012, achieving a CAGR of ~% during the same period. The labor ministry signed an agreement to allow women to work at lingerie shops, thus increasing employment and income level of Saudi women in the retail sector. Apart from the rising tourism in Riyadh, more domestic households opting to stay within the country during vacations have resulted in higher retail earnings. Saudi Arabian General Investment Authority (SAGIA) had announced during 2015 to allow 100% foreign ownership in retail businesses. This move is expected to increase demand for retail space by international brands in the coming years.
Retail Mall Categories
The retail real estate market in Riyadh comprises of various small and large scale developmental projects. Retail mall categories comprise of regional, super regional and community centers. Super regional and regional malls accounted for nearly ~% of the overall retail supply in Riyadh during 2016. Conversely, community centers comprise of standalone retail outlets, supermarket and hypermarket and have accounted for ~% of overall retail supply in the city during 2016.
Average Rental Rates
The rental rate charged by mall developers varies across different mall categories in Riyadh. It is evident that rental rates for regional and super regional mall are much higher in comparison to community centers and stand alone stores because of better location, potential to get international brands and reputed anchor stores to the mall and robust infrastructure facilities. Within these regional and super regional malls however, rental rates differ based on area, location within the mall and brand power. The annual average rental rate increased to a high of SAR ~ per Sq M during 2015 from SAR ~ per Sq M during 2012. However, downward pressure on rental rates caused this figure to decline to SAR ~ per Sq M during 2016.
Future Retail Demand and Supply
The total retail supply in Riyadh is estimated to incline to ~ thousand Sq M of GLA by 2021 from thousand Sq M during 2016, registering a CAGR of ~% during the same period. Conversely, retail demand is projected to augment from ~ thousand Sq M during 2016 to ~ thousand Sq M of occupied space by 2021, achieving a CAGR of ~% during the same period. Saudi Vision 2030 with respect to feminization in the retail sector has targeted women participation in the workforce to increase from the current 22% to 30%. Increased female participation in the retail sector will positively impact and will lead to increased number of female owned businesses coupled with higher spending power. Increasing retail supply along with a slow conversion rate is expected to cause retail oversupply to reach ~ thousand Sq M. of gross leasing area by 2021.
Ankur Gupta, Head Marketing & Communications